Rising Grocery Prices Are Reshaping How America Eats

American households of every size are at a breaking point, and the grocery store is the front line.

Nearly one in five shoppers say they’ve skipped meals or turned to credit just to afford food. More than half of six-figure households are buying cheaper or lower-quality food to make ends meet.

According to our inaugural U.S. Grocery Shopper Annual Outlook Report, conducted with 1,009 shoppers between August 1–4, 2025, nearly half of households (49.1%) reported that their grocery costs are more than they can afford and that food prices are a major source of stress. This is no longer a hardship faced by low-income households. It is a nationwide crisis that cuts across every income bracket, every age group, and every type of household.

For decades, the grocery list was about choice: what to buy, where to shop, which brands to trust. Today, it is about trade-offs, strategy, and control. 

In our survey, 43.6% of shoppers reported buying cheaper or lower-quality food at least sometimes to afford groceries. That figure climbs to 55.3% among households earning $100K–$149K, showing that even higher-income households are making deliberate cost-cutting decisions to feed their families. For lower-income shoppers, many have already traded down as far as they can, leaving no “cheaper” tier left to move into.

Other tactics are equally revealing, with 43.8% of households reported cutting back on non-essential expenses. Others are making even more drastic changes, with 18.0% cutting back on essential expenses, 17.3% skipping or reducing meals, and 18.4% relying on credit, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), or borrowed money to cover grocery costs. When nearly one-fifth of Americans are forced to finance a necessity as fundamental as food, it shows the failure lies with the system itself.

Too often, these behaviors are dismissed as temporary, a byproduct of short-term inflation spikes or economic downturns. But grocery costs have followed a different path. According to USDA data, food-at-home prices surged 0.6% in August 2025—the largest month-over-month increase since 2022 and three times the 0.2% increase of overall inflation—underscoring how grocery costs remain a persistent inflationary force even as other categories moderate. Earlier periods, like 2022, saw double-digit grocery inflation that set a new baseline for the prices of essentials - a baseline that has persisted even as supply chain pressures returned to prepandemic levels. 

Corporate leaders are recognizing the extent of this shift as well. Earlier this year, Kellogg’s CEO Gary Pilnick suggested in a CNBC interview that cash-strapped households could consider eating cereal for dinner, pointing out that a bowl with milk and fruit costs “less than a dollar.” By suggesting compromising on meals and nutrition as an acceptable option, Pilnick not only illustrated the desperation families are currently acting with - he exemplified the lack of pressure felt by industry leaders to make the necessary systemic corrections. 

This drive for control is now reshaping how households prepare for their grocery trips. More shoppers are building pre-trip lists and sticking to them than ever before. Eighty-nine percent of respondents in our survey say they make a list before grocery shopping, with low-income households showing the most discipline in creating and following their lists.

Price-checking has also become second nature. Shoppers are comparing across multiple retailers with unprecedented diligence, weighing the value of a dollar against the cost of time and fuel. In our survey, 79% said they at least sometimes split their trips between multiple stores. Nearly half, 47%, told us they would travel at least 10 minutes farther to meaningfully reduce their total basket cost, a figure that rises to 58% among households earning under $50,000.

These are not passive adaptations to inflation. They are intentional strategies developed out of necessity. From meticulous list-building to cross-retailer comparisons, shoppers are making calculated choices in an environment with almost no margin for error. The willingness to change stores, commit time, and reconfigure routines demonstrates both the pressure households face and the agency they are now exercising.

Shoppers awakening to the fact that they are in control will fundamentally change how the grocery business operates. 

For retailers, trade and promotion planning must evolve from broad, untargeted campaigns to precision strategies that connect the right households with the right offers at the right time. Retailers that combine transparency, flexibility, and speed with the ability to act on signals in near real time will gain the edge. Retailers have 6 months before shoppers abandon traditional loyalty forever. 

For brands, the erosion of automatic loyalty means every trip is an open contest. Shoppers are more willing than ever to switch to a competitor when it delivers a better perceived value. Brands that connect directly with shoppers and their personal definition of value—whether it's the lowest price, preferred pack size, or nutritional profile—will have the best chance of winning.

For shoppers, emerging from the chaos of this current environment offers something more important than a single discount: control. Tools utilizing today’s technology, like what we are building at Stretch, will provide shoppers with the ability to plan, compare, and act on information. This will continue to put the decision-making power back in the shoppers’ hands and further enable them to decide which trade-offs they are willing to make between quality, convenience, and brand. 

Today’s workarounds involve paper lists, coupon apps, and ad-hoc online searches. However, our research indicates that price transparency, real-time comparison, and personalized recommendations will not be optional—they will be expected. Ultimately, the grocery industry is moving toward a future where shoppers set the terms. 

For shoppers, this emerging future is about agency and dignity. For the industry, it is about relevance and trust. For all of us, it’s about building a food economy that works not just for some, but for everyone. Stretch is building for those that are ready to compete in this future. For those that aren’t, your customers are likely already planning their exit.

About Stretch

Stretch Collective is reimagining grocery shopping. As shoppers seek smarter ways to manage their grocery spending, our platform creates unprecedented opportunities for retailers and brands to understand behavior, refine strategy, and uncover new opportunities as households evolve their shopping habits to make every dollar count.